According to foreign media reports, as the looming energy crisis in the European region will put pressure on the supply chain, from the beginning of this quarter to the end of 2023, European automakers may decline in production by more than 1 million vehicles each quarter.
Part shortages and supply bottlenecks are likely to be the heaviest burden on European automakers from November to next spring, especially as energy supplies dwindle during the cold winter, an auto market forecaster said.
“The pressure on the automotive supply chain will be very high,” said analyst Edwin Pope. Factories may have to suspend “full vehicle deliveries” due to shortages of individual parts. Governments across Europe are currently intervening to mitigate the impact of the energy crisis, but these measures may not be enough to prevent the auto industry from shutting down completely this winter.
In addition, automakers’ Just-in-time supply model will also face problems, as some suppliers implement energy-efficient shift systems, and the ensuing parts shortages and bottlenecks could lead to production stoppages.
The agency had forecast that European car factories would produce between 4 million and 4.5 million vehicles a quarter. And if energy restrictions are imposed, vehicle production could fall to 2.8 million per quarter. This means a loss of 4.8 million to 6.8 million vehicles per year. The forecast looked at 11 major European car production centres and ranked them according to their ability to withstand the energy crisis.
The Czech Republic and Germany top the list, with Germany benefiting from a relatively low reliance on natural gas for power generation and a relatively high current level of natural gas reserves. By contrast, car factories in Spain, Italy and Belgium are most at risk, with the three countries scoring the lowest on energy self-sufficiency.
Source: Shanghai KINMACHI New Material Technology organized from the Internet
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